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GBP/USD. July 4. Pound shows active trading amid lack of economic news


On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped sharply to 1.1933 on Friday. However, it made a reversal in favor of the pound and rose strongly enough by the end of the trading last week. This trend continued on Monday. At the moment, the pound has increased to the correctional level of 523.6%, to 1.2146, from which it started its fall on Friday. Notably, the ISM business activity index in the US was the only important release on Friday. Today, the economic calendar has nothing significant. Thus, GBP has fallen by 200 pips at first, and then rose by 200 pips, without any important events or news. In my opinion, such activity of traders is abnormal these days. It is hard to say what it can mean, but from my point of view, the currency market is again approaching the stage when the trend starts to become very strong. The British pound as well as the European currency has spent the last few weeks near its multi-year lows, and bulls have also failed to take advantage of the temporary lull to push the pound up at least slightly.

On the higher time frames, the quotes are almost at the lower point of the whole downtrend. Thus, the pair's rebound from the Fibo level of 523.6% may contribute to the US currency growth and the pair may fall to 1.1933. If the pair fixes above 523.6%, this may push GBP up again but I do not really believe that it is real. This week, the most important report will be released on Friday. The non-farm employment change in the US is usually important. However, I do not believe it can help the British economy to recover, even if the release is much worse than expected. In that case, it will be just one report, while the information background in general and the sentiment of big players remain bearish for the pound. I do not see how the pound sterling can show strong growth yet. Probably, it will continue to fall.


On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the level of 1.1980, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the British currency. Thus, the pair has started to grow towards the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.2250. The level of 1.1980 appeared to be more important for traders than the level of 1.1933 on the hourly chart. Nevertheless, I still expect the price to resume falling below 1.1980. Traders will be able to count on the growth of the British currency after the fixation above the downtrend line.

Commitments of Traders report:


The sentiment of Non-commercial traders has become a bit more bullish over the past week. The number of long contracts increased by 6,714, and short contracts decreased by 3,415. Thus, the overall sentiment of big players remained bearish, and the number of long contracts still exceeds the number of short ones by several times. The big players continue to get rid of the pound for the most part and their sentiment has not changed much lately. Thus, I think the British pound could continue its decline over the next few weeks. A strong divergence between long and short contracts can indicate a trend reversal, but the information background is obviously more important for the big players now. The news background remains unfavorable to the pound. So far, speculators are selling more than buying.

Economic calendar for the US and the UK:

On Monday, there are no events in the UK and the US. Thus, there will be no influence on market sentiment today.

Forecast on GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

You may sell GBP with the target of 1.1933 if the pair rebounds from the level of 523.6% - 1.2146 on the hourly chart. You may also buy the pound only after the pair fixes above the trend line on the 4-hour chart with the target of 1.2674.

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