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GBP/USD analysis on June 9. This week, only the US inflation report remains.


For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require adjustments. The downward section of the trend is completed, and the wave e-E, although it has taken a rather complex form. However, it is also five-wave in the structure of the five-wave downward section of the trend, as well as for the euro/dollar instrument. Thus, both instruments presumably completed the construction of downward trend sections. According to the British, the construction of an upward section of the trend has begun, which is currently interpreted as a corrective one. I believe that it will turn out to be three-wave, but there is also a second option, in which it will take a pulsed, five-wave form. Now the construction of the corrective wave b is presumably completed, within which three waves are already visible. Thus, the construction of wave c can now begin with targets located around 30 figures. Wave b can also take a five-wave, but corrective, form. I will note once again that the wave markings of the euro and the pound are very similar now, so we can expect that both currencies will move approximately the same in the next few weeks.

The dollar can only expect a slight increase.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument did not decrease on June 9 and did not gain a single point. Market activity was very low today, the amplitude was only about 30 basis points. In the last days of this week, the activity was much higher. There was no news background for the British today, but tomorrow the inflation report for May will be released in the US. And this report will end the current, not the most interesting week. Let me remind you that I expect a further increase in both the European and the British. The construction of a long-term downward trend section cannot end with just one correction wave. There must be at least one more. The fact that both instruments had chances to build a deeper correction in recent weeks, but did not take advantage of them, indicates a low level of the market's desire to increase demand for the dollar. I believe that this indicates the intention of the market to continue buying the euro and the pound. However, now there is one difference in the wave markings of the instruments. For the euro, the corrective wave b looks like a single wave, and for the pound – like a three-wave structure. This difference can lead to the fact that for the euro, wave b will take a three-wave form, and for the pound - a five-wave form, and after that, the increase of both instruments will resume. Thus, I expect that the US inflation report tomorrow will cause an increase in demand for the US currency. To do this, ideally, it would be necessary for inflation to start accelerating again. Let me remind you that in April it decreased from 8.5% y/y to 8.3% y/y. If tomorrow it turns out that it has accelerated again relative to 8.3%, this will help the instrument to make the necessary leap down, since the last doubts about the expediency of raising the interest rate at each meeting in 2022 will have to finally disappear from the Fed.

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the completion of the construction of wave E and the entire downward trend segment. Thus, I now advise buying the British for each MACD signal "up" with targets located above the peak of wave a, not below the calculated mark of 1.3042, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci. Under certain circumstances, wave marking can become very complicated, but now there is no reason to assume this.


On the higher scale, the entire downward trend section looks fully equipped. Therefore, the continuation of the decline of the instrument below the 22nd figure is postponed indefinitely for the time being. Wave E has taken a five-wave form and looks quite complete. The construction of at least three wave ascending trend sections has begun.

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