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EUR/USD analysis on June 6. The dollar can count on a decline to the 6th figure


The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to look convincing and does not require adjustments. The instrument has completed the construction of the descending wave 5-E, which is the last in the structure of the descending trend section. If this is indeed the case, then at this time the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. It can turn out to be three-wave, or it can be pulsed. At the moment, two waves of a new section of the trend are already visible. Wave a is completed, and wave b can take a three-wave form, and in this case, the decline in the quotes of the instrument will resume with targets located around the 6th figure or slightly lower. Wave 5-E turned out to be a pronounced five-wave, so its internal wave marking is beyond doubt. The only option now in which the decline of the euro can resume is the rapid completion of the correction section of the trend and the construction of a new downward impulse. However, to identify this option, you need at least the completion of the ascending wave c, the targets of which are located about 9-10 figures.

US labor market data did not help the dollar.

The euro/dollar instrument fell by only 30 basis points on Friday. The news background was very strong (from my point of view), as data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls), unemployment and wages were released on Friday. If the last two reports cannot be considered important, then data on the labor market always arouse increased interest in the market. I was counting on a stronger decrease in the instrument since the wave markup now supports this option. Internal waves are visible inside wave a, so they can also be inside wave b. Therefore, wave b should take a three-wave form, and for this, the demand for the euro currency should decrease this week. There was no news background on Monday, but there will be several important events this week that I want to draw readers' attention to.

First of all, this is the meeting of the European Regulator, which will be held on Thursday. The market is not waiting for a rate hike at this time but expects such a move from the ECB this fall. Forecasts now range from one increase of 25 basis points to 2-3 increases. However, I am skeptical about this information, since the main actors of the ECB do not comment on this issue too often. On Thursday, the market can just get all the necessary information personally from Christine Lagarde, who will speak at a press conference dedicated to summarizing the results of the meeting. Also this week, a report on inflation in the United States will be released, which has also received a lot of attention lately. This time, the market is waiting for 8.3% y/y, which will not differ from the value of the previous month - April. Such a value is unlikely to cause a market reaction, but still, the report is important, and its value may not coincide with expectations. The Fed has already raised the rate to 1%, and last month inflation slowed to 8.3% y/y. We can expect a slight decrease in this indicator.

General conclusions

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section is completed. If so, then now you can buy a tool with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.0947, which equates to 161.8% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up". It is best to wait for the completion of the construction of the corrective wave b, its low should be slightly lower than figure 6.


On a larger scale, it can be seen that the construction of the proposed wave E has been completed. Thus, the entire downward trend has acquired a complete look. If this is true, then in the future, the instrument will rise for several months with targets located near the peak of wave D, that is, to the 15th figure.

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