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How to trade EUR/USD on April 18? Simple tips for beginners.

Analysis of previous deals:30M chart of the EUR/USD pair


The EUR/USD currency pair was not traded on Friday. The pair stood in one place all day, just above the 1.0806 level. The volatility of the day was 33 points. Only the report on industrial production in the United States can be distinguished among the macroeconomic events, which, as it is easy to guess, had no effect on the pair's movement. Thus, it was absolutely impossible to trade the pair on Friday. Plus, a flat... And what do we end up with after the week has ended? The euro/dollar pair continues to remain near its 15-month lows. That is, the downward trend continues. The macroeconomic background has a slight impact on the pair's movement, but at the same time it supports the dollar more than the euro. The fundamental background, which is now expressed by monetary policies and plans of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, is also entirely on the dollar's side. The geopolitical factor, despite some lull in the fighting in Ukraine, is a negative factor for risky currencies (that is, for the euro). That is, all factors now support the dollar, so we believe that this currency will continue to grow in the coming weeks. The nature of the pair's movement is as complex as possible, at this time there is still no trend line or channel (at least sideways) to have clear trend guidelines.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair


On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture is clear and understandable to the point of outrage. There was a sideways movement all day. Volatility at 21 points was shown in the European trading session, and 15 points in the US trading session. Three buy signals were generated during the day. The price first bounced off the 1.0806 level, and then bounced off it twice more, never trying to settle below it. Therefore, novice players could open long positions at the very first buy signal. They could be closed at any time. Most likely, zero profit was made on this transaction. Nothing more can be said about trading operations and movement on Friday.

How to trade on Monday:

The trend remains downward on the 30-minute timeframe. The downward trend line was reversed very quickly, but we warned that it was weak and short-term. The horizontal channel was also canceled earlier. The pair is trading very erratically, without a clear trend, without a trend line and continues to settle near its 15-month lows, slowly starting to "aim" for 5-year lows near the level of 1.0636. We believe that the euro will continue to fall in the near future. Moreover, the last local low - the 1.0806 level - was eventually broken. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.0727, 1.0758, 1.0806, 1.0837, 1.0905, 1.0938, 1.0966. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. There are no important events and reports scheduled for Monday in the European Union and the United States. Of course, it is unlikely that the pair will trade with a volatility of 30 points for two consecutive days. Most likely, traders will continue to be active, at least a bit. But we would not count on strong and trending movements tomorrow.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA.