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FX Weekly: 2 Year Cycle, EUR/USD and Trade Opportunities


The 2 year cycle, or the February to April/ May period, was first identified and written extensively in 2018. In March 2016, we were regularly hitting multiple targets due to the abundance of terrific trades. Enlightenment to the 2 year cycle was in its infancy stages.

In March 2018, I posted 35 trades and all achieved targets in the 5, 7, and 1000 pip vicinity and multiple 1000’s of pips were banked. So great and easy were the trades, I couldn’t factor and post fast enough. GBP/JPY achieved our first 1000 pip trade and target perfectly.

Identification and analysis began in March 2018—those words are the exact same as written in 2020 and today. Trade instruction, for example, was enter anywhere as ranges expanded and targets were far distance to entries. Best trades are cross pairs.

March 2020 and current 2022 analysis matches 2018 as ranges expanded—enter anywhere and trade cross pairs—although EUR/USD and GBP/USD performed well in 2020 at 3 and 400 pips targets, however the cross pairs outperformed.

DXY at 101.00 in March 2020 was too high and overbought. DXY in March 2022 was too high and overbought at 99.18. SPX 500 dropped 900 pips in March 2020 and 600 points November 2018 as we identified the 2 year cycle as a market wide phenomenon.

For 4 typical weekly trades posted in March 2020 ran as follows: EUR/USD +284 pips, EUR/AUD +589, GBP/USD +370, USD/JPY +127 and total +1370 pips.

To add to the 2 year cycle, and posted March 2020: From January 1972, possible turning point years would transpire in 2020 and 2022 as the 50 year end point. Central banks in 2022 are now in interest rate rise cycles and the 2008 crash hit perfectly. The Fed surprised March 2020 with an interest rate cut.

EUR/USD and cross pairs achieved targets by last Tuesday for +1000 ish pips. Last Tuesday was Mar. 15 or the Ides of March when Julius Caesar was assassinated. The word Ides translates from Latin as divide. The Romans considered March a religious observance to settle debts much the same as Jubilee years from Leviticus 25 on the 49th year.

Most interesting to the March review is trades, profits, targets, analysis and consistency over many years. Not interesting is what serves as analysis and trades today. Much has changed over a few short years

The week

EUR/USD this week targets 1.1155 and will achieve this destination by breaks higher at 1.1037, 1.1060, 1.1083, 1.1106, 1.1129, and 1.1152. Long term targets remain at 1.1280, 1.1337, 1.1369, and 1.1457.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain overbought for 3 weeks running, as well as JPY cross pairs. Overbought GBP/JPY at 156.62 trades near its 158 top from the 148 to 158 range. EUR/JPY must trade to minimum 129.00’s from current 131.00’s.

GBP/USD traded 200 pips last week or 2.88 pips per hour. EUR/USD at 228 pips beat GBP/USD by 28 pips or a 228 range at 3.16 pips per hour.

USD/CAD big points are located at 1.2146, 1.2380, 1.2584, 1.2660, 1.2668, and 1.2838. USD/CAD trades dead center from 1.2584 to 1.2660.

GBP/USD 1.3123, 1.3165, 1.3209, 1.3342, 1.3419 and 1.3769. GBP/trades the lower end from 1.3123 to 1.3209.

Overall, currency market drivers remain EUR/USD, EUR cross pairs, and USD/JPY on an enter anywhere trade status.

Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA.