Official site of the most popular forex trading expert advisor...

EUR/USD: Market Trying To Reach March 9 Bull Close

EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • The market is deciding what will happen with the EUR/USD at March 9 close level. There will be bulls who bought there, and the question is, will they exit back at their original entry at breakeven or continue to buy for a test higher back into the 3-month trading range.
  • March 9 was enough of a surprise bar that traders were probably willing to buy the close if they are capable of managing the trade well (wide stop and scale in lower).
  • The two consecutive bear bars last week look like a breakout pullback for the bulls rather than a reversal down from the 3-month trading range.
  • Bulls had a weak signal bar on March 14, which made the probably low for the reversal up; however, if the bulls can get 2-3 consecutive bull closes, especially with one closing on its high (today), that would increase the odds that the market is going above last week’s high.
  • The odds are that the 3-month trading range is a final flag and that the market will get back into the middle of the 3-month trading range.
  • Bulls hope that the final flag will be similar to the January 31 reversal, leading to 4 strong bull bars.
  • If bulls can get a decisive breakout here with follow-through, especially if the bull bars are big (or many consecutive bull bars) closing above many bars, it will increase the odds of the March 7 being the low for several months.
  • Bears want any rally that tests the 3-month trading range low to appear weak and lack bull conviction. This would increase the odds of getting a double top with the March 10 high and a possible breakout below the March 7 low and a test of the 2020 price level.
  • More likely, the market will go sideways to up and confuse traders. What I mean is the rally will look too tight for traders to sell but also not quite strong enough to buy (think small pullback bull trend).

Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA.