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EUR/USD: Bull Breakout Testing March High

EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD bears are currently giving up on the idea of a double top at the 3-month trading range low, which is why the daily chart has a big bull bar today.
  • Currently, the odds favor a bull breakout above the March bear flag and a test of the 3-month trading range and the top of the large bear channel line.
  • Bulls want today to close near its high, which would increase the odds of follow-through tomorrow.
  • I have been saying that the bears needed to get follow-through after the March 21 double top stop entry, and while the bears had a tight channel, it was becoming difficult for the bears to stay short.
  • This means that as the market was going down to March 28, the bear bars were getting weaker, which is the opposite of what a bear wants, which is why the bears gave up on the open of today.
  • Overall, traders should expect a test of the March high and for the bulls to try and break above the March bear flag and try for a measured move up. The bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to convince traders that the market will reach the February high.

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