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Analysis of GBP/USD on March 19. The pound uses the decisions of the Bank of England and tries to lengthen the correction


For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. The increase in the quotes of the British dollar in recent days may be a corrective wave d-E and it may be nearing its completion. In total, there should be five waves inside the wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction. At the moment, the quotes of the British are only slightly below the low of wave C. This indirectly suggests that the decline has not yet been completed, and the last descending wave E may turn out to be more extended. A successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.3041, which equates to 76.4% by Fibonacci, may lead to an increase in demand for the US currency. However, most likely, this option should be counted on already with the beginning of the construction of the wave e-E. I don't see any alternative options for wave marking yet. Everything is quite unambiguous. Geopolitical information has a devastating effect on the British, but this influence fully corresponds to the current wave markup.

The Bank of England supported the pound, but the support is weak.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 30 basis points during March 18. Thus, presumably, the construction of a corrective upward wave continues. There was practically no news background on Friday, but the market had enough of the news it received earlier this week. Let me remind you that the Bank of England and the Fed held their second meetings this year and both raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Since in the case of the Fed, this not only did not come as a surprise, but the market itself expected an increase of 50 basis points, the British received support. Since in the case of the Bank of England, the market was not completely sure that it would go for a third rate hike in a row, this decision also increased demand for the British. But this is only if we talk about everything that happened at the end of all the weeks. After the Bank of England raised the rate, the British collapsed by 110 points. Everything was very ambiguous. It is because of this ambiguous reaction that I believe that the construction of an upward wave will be short-lived. The market had a great opportunity to take the Briton as high as possible, but it took advantage of it by 20 percent. On Friday, the instrument failed to break through its previous peak, so perhaps the construction of a new downward wave e-E has already begun. Thus, next week, the demand for Americans should grow to preserve the integrity of the wave marking. The euro currency is also ready to build a new downward wave, so both instruments can begin to perform this task.

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument assumes the construction of a wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located near the 1.2676 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down", since wave E does not look completed yet. The proposed wave d-E may already be completed, or it may take a three-wave form. But we are still only interested in selling signals since there are no grounds for making adjustments to the markup yet.


At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect the decline of the instrument to continue with targets well below the low of wave C. Wave E should take a five-wave form, so I expect to see the British quotes around the 27th figure.

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