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COT Currency Speculator’s Bullish Bets On Brazilian Real Skyrocket

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, Feb. 8, and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according to the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to Sept. 28.

There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on Feb. 2 to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014.

The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten-week average of 33,492 contracts) of the Feb. 2. total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second-highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch.

Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), (1,492 contracts), (15,060 contracts), (1,332 contracts), (514 contracts) and the (1,292 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US dollar (-806 contracts), (-5,912 contracts), (-3,378 contracts), (-1,160 contracts) and the futures (-460 contracts).

US Dollar Index Futures

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent.

Euro Currency Futures

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

British Pound Sterling Futures

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Japanese Yen Futures

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent

Swiss Franc Futures

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Canadian Dollar Futures

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Australian Dollar Futures

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

New Zealand Dollar Futures

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Mexican Peso Futures

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Brazilian Real Futures

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Russian Ruble Futures

Russian Ruble Futures COT Chart

Russian Ruble Futures COT Chart

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.


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