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How to trade EUR/USD on January 24? Simple tips for beginners

Analysis of previous deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded as dull as possible on Friday. Although the price moved only in one direction for most of the day, which is always good for traders. Volatility cannot be said to be too weak, but it was not strong either. The "Friday factor" worked, as well as the complete absence of important macroeconomic and fundamental events. Thus, the European currency managed to slightly grow on Friday, but still remains below the level of 1.1360. And this level, we recall, is the upper limit of the horizontal channel in which the pair spent at least a month. Of course, now it is still impossible to say that the price has returned to the channel. There have been a large number of such channels over the past year, and every time the price returns to one of these ranges, it is hardly possible to conclude that the flat has resumed. Nevertheless, the overall picture suggests that the resumption of the flat is very likely. We expect that the pair will fall to the level of 1.1234 and, perhaps, even continue to decline.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The movement on the 5-minute timeframe also looks as sluggish as possible. Despite the fact that the price was moving almost only in one direction, in the US trading session the movement was mainly sideways. There were practically no trading signals during the day. The price has reached the level only once. Thus, it was not the most successful day for novice traders. At the same time, it should be understood that it is impossible to "collect" several profitable trading signals every day. The only trading signal of the day was a rebound from the level of 1.1360. Since it was not very late yet, novice traders could open short positions at this moment. However, the pair was able to go down only 10-15 points, so the profit on a short position could not exceed this value. It was necessary to close the deal manually in the late afternoon, since the price still could not fall to the level of 1.1315.

How to trade on Monday:

The price is now inside the horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe, as well as near the important level of 1.1360. Thus, a rebound from this level allows us to count on the resumption of the pair's fall next week. That is, even if the flat has resumed now, we are still waiting for a decline inside the horizontal channel to the level of 1.1234. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1,1285-1,1292, 1,1315, 1,1360-1,1366, 1,1387. In general, there are quite a lot of levels on the chart now, which is typical for a flat, when the price does not get out of a limited range for a long time. Therefore, you need to be careful with bounces from them within the intraday trend movement. The macroeconomic background on Monday will be expressed by indices of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors in the European Union and the United States. We believe that if the indices fall, it may provoke traders to react accordingly. And a drop in the indices is quite possible, since in January both the EU and the US were in the midst of another "wave" of the pandemic.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.


Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner.
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